Violent Crime Rates in U.S. Cities Return to Pre-Pandemic Levels, New Report Finds
Most violent crime in U.S. cities has returned to pre-pandemic levels, according to the Council on Criminal Justice’s 2024 mid-year crime trend report released Thursday.
Federal crime data can be challenging to track, but the Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ) monitors monthly crime rates in 39 cities that have reported their data consistently over the past several years.
Of the 12 types of crimes studied, 11 have had lower rates this year than the same period in 2023. The only exception is shoplifting, which increased by 24% in the first half of this year compared to the same period last year.
CCJ President and CEO Adam Gelb noted that the pandemic has changed the reasons, methods, and opportunities for committing crime, causing crime rates to rise and then decline.
“The world went through huge changes and it felt like everything was turned upside down. There was a lot of disruption and stress in 2020 and 2021, both economically and emotionally,” Gelb told USA TODAY. “Now, things have calmed down a little bit.”
CCJ President and CEO Adam Gelb noted that the pandemic has changed the reasons, methods, and opportunities for committing crime, causing crime rates to rise and then decline.
“The world went through huge changes and it felt like everything was turned upside down. There was a lot of disruption and stress in 2020 and 2021, both economically and emotionally,” Gelb told USA TODAY. “Now, things have calmed down a little bit.”
Most violent crime rates back to pre-pandemic levels
In 2020, there was a surge in violent crimes, which coincided with the COVID-19 pandemic and numerous racial justice protests. Experts noticed that this surge in violent crimes has been decreasing in the last few months. According to the latest report from the CCJ, most violent crimes are now back to 2019 levels.
According to the report, the average rates have changed as follows in the first six months of 2024:
Homicides: 2% lower than the first half of 2019 and 13% lower than the first half of 2023.
Aggravated assaults: 0.2% lower than the first half of 2019 and 7% lower than the first half of 2023.
Gun assaults: 1% higher than the first half of 2019 and 18% lower than the first half of 2023.
Domestic violence: These figures are 8% lower than the first six months of 2019 and 2% lower than the first six months of 2023.
Robberies: The numbers for the first half of the year are 15% lower than the same period in 2019 and 6% lower than the first half of 2023.
Carjackings: Data shows that carjackings in the first half of 2024 are 68% higher than the same period in 2019. However, they are 26% lower than the first half of 2023. Note that this information comes with caution from the CCJ as only seven cities have reported their carjacking statistics.
Motor Vehicle Theft Sees Decline After Years of Increase
Motor vehicle thefts have increased since the summer of 2020. However, according to the CCJ, this trend appears to be changing.
In 2024, motor vehicle thefts have decreased by 18% compared to the same period in 2023. However, they are 66% higher than in the first half of 2019.
The report points out that stolen cars are often used to commit other crimes.
Residential burglaries, non-residential burglaries, thefts, and drug crimes have all decreased compared to the same period in 2023.
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Shoplifting up 24% compared to 2023
Shoplifting, which includes retail theft such as “smash and break-ins,” has become significantly more common. While shoplifting incidents decreased in 2021, and even by the end of 2023, the rate was lower than it was in 2019.
While it is clear that shoplifting is not as serious as murder, it still affects the way people view our society,” Gelb said, noting the “boldness” of some shoplifting cases.
In 2024, shoplifting is the only crime the CCJ found to be increasing compared to 2023. Shoplifting increased by 24% in the first half of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, and by 10% compared to the first half of 2019. However, the CCJ noted that more incidents may be reported to law enforcement, which could contribute to the higher numbers.
Work still needed to get back to low 2014 rates
The report shows that the decline in violent crime is promising, but crime rates in 2019 were still higher than at their lowest point in 2014. For example, murders in 2019 were 15% higher than in 2014, according to the CCJ. In 2014, the death of Michael Brown significantly damaged public trust in the police.
Gelb also noted that crime rates across cities were more similar in 2021 and 2022. However, cities are now beginning to see different trends, with some seeing an increase in murders.
“The way things are returning to normal is very individual. This suggests that local policies and strategies are having an impact. There are many different approaches being used,” Gelb explained.
The report suggests policymakers need to do more to keep people safe.
Despite the progress, it does not ease the pain of those who lose loved ones to violence, the report says. “The United States should not accept high crime rates that result in thousands of deaths and injuries each year, especially when we now know more about how to prevent and combat violence.
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